乌东德水电站蓄水前后降水变化特征OA
Characteristics of Precipitation Changes in the Reservoir Area before and after the Storage of Wudongde Reservoir
采用数理统计、线性拟合、Theil-Sen 斜率和 SPI 干旱指数方法分析了乌东德水电站蓄水前后降水变化特征.乌东德水电站自 2014 年以来已建设了 5 个固定观测点的坝区自动气象站,但是缺乏长期观测资料,无法直接计算SPI.利用乌东德水电站周边 100 km 范围内的 7 个国家气象站 1994 年~2024 年月降水量资料,构建伽马分布参数插值法拟合乌东德水电站干旱指数 SPI 的相关参数,从而推算干旱指数 SPI.结果表明:近 11 年来乌东德水电站降水量总体呈下降趋势,但是蓄水前倾向率是负值,蓄水后倾向率是正值,蓄水后降水量呈上升趋势;基于 SPI12 的旱涝频数空间分布来看,蓄水前乌东德水电站出现偏涝状况,蓄水后在区域偏旱的环境下,偏旱的频数小于周边区域;水电站 5 个自动气象站的 SPI3 斜率总体较稳定,蓄水前出现偏旱的负值中心,蓄水后出现偏涝的正值中心,坝区以南偏涝趋势明显.
The characteristics of precipitation changes before and after the impoundment of Wudongde Hydropower Station are analyzed by using mathematical statistics,linear fitting,Theil-Sen slope and SPI drought index methods.Since 2014,five fixed observation points of automatic weather stations in the dam area of Wudongde Hydropower Station have been built,but there is a lack of long-term observation data,making it impossible to directly calculate SPI.The monthly precipitation data from 1994 to 2024 of seven national meteorological stations within a 100-kilometer radius of Wudongde Hydropower Station are used to construct a gamma distribution parameter interpolation method to fit the relevant parameters of the drought index SPI of Wudongde Hydropower Station,thereby calculating the drought index SPI.The results show that:(a)the precipitation in Wudongde Hydropower Station has generally decreased over past 11 years,however,the trend rate before impoundment is negative,while it is positive after impoundment,indicating an upward trend in precipitation after impoundment;(b)based on the spatial distribution of drought and flood frequencies of SPI12,the hydropower station is prone to flooding before impoundment,and after impoundment,the frequency of drought is lower than that of the surrounding areas in the regional drought environment;and(c)the SPI3 slopes of the five automatic weather stations in the hydropower station are generally stable,a negative center of drought occurred before impoundment,while a positive center of flooding emerged after impoundment,and to the south of the dam area,the flooding trend is more obvious.
王将;邹阳;孙俊奎;马志敏
昆明市气象局,云南 昆明 650501昆明市气象局,云南 昆明 650501昆明市气象局,云南 昆明 650501云南省气象台,云南 昆明 650034
天文与地球科学
降水变化水库蓄水SPI参数插值Theil-Sen斜率乌东德水电站
precipitation changereservoir impoundmentSPIparameter interpolationTheil-Sen slopeWudongde Reservoir
《水力发电》 2026 (6)
22-27,6
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42375043)中国气象局创新发展专项"CMA 区域模式在我国低纬高原复杂地形区的性能评估及改进研究"(CXFZ2025J017)云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202450)
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