考虑蠕变劣化效应的库岸边坡变形机制与预测研究OA

The long-term stability of reservoir bank slopes is a critical issue for reservoir safe operation.Focusing on a reser-voir bank slope at a hydropower station in southwestern China,this study systematically investigates the multi-factor coupled mechanisms governing slope deformation,with particular emphasis on the controlling role of creep deterioration effects.Based on the Nishihara mechanical model and multivariate regression analysis,a prediction method for long-term slope deformation is pro-posed,which comprehensively considers rock mass softening,long-term creep,and effective stress variations.Quantitative predic-tions of future deformation trends are also provided.The results indicate that periodic fluctuations in reservoir water levels,espe-cially during the drawdown phase,are the dominant factor inducing rock deterioration in the fluctuation zone and driving long-term slope deformation.Specifically,the viscoplastic deformation of rock in the fluctuation zone exhibits stepwise growth under cy-clic water-level changes,gradually becoming the primary contributor to cumulative slope displacement.Therefore,controlling and dynamically monitoring the viscoplastic deformation of rock in the water-level fluctuation zone are key measures to ensure the long-term stability of reservoir bank slopes.This study provides references for long-term deformation prediction and stability e-valuation of reservoir bank slopes.