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城乡融合发展对粮食生产韧性的影响机制研究OA

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Urban-rural Integrated Development on Food Production Resilience

中文摘要英文摘要

粮食生产韧性是保障国家粮食安全的核心并推动农业系统实现可持续发展的关键.城乡融合发展通过系统性作用,全面增强粮食生产韧性,为保障粮食安全提供支撑.本文以中国2011-2022年省级面板数据为样本,使用熵权法测算城乡融合发展和粮食生产韧性,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型及调节效应分析城乡融合发展对粮食生产韧性的影响以及作用机制.研究表明:(1)城乡融合发展显著提升了粮食生产韧性.(2)异质性分析表明,相对于中部地区,城乡融合发展对东部地区和西部地区粮食生产韧性的影响更大.(3)作进一步的中介分析发现,农业新质生产力在城乡融合发展对粮食生产韧性中起到中介作用.因此,应进一步实施区域差异化的城乡融合策略,构建城乡一体的自然灾害联防联控体系,以科技创新为核心引擎推动城乡产业深度融合,强化城乡人力资源双向流动,为粮食生产韧性提供更坚实保障,助力粮食安全.

The resilience of food production is central to ensuring national food security and driving the sustain-able development of the agricultural system.Integrated urban-rural development enhances food production resilience comprehensively through systemic effects,providing robust support for food security.Using provincial panel data from China between 2011 and 2022 as the sample,this study employs the entropy weighting method to measure the impact of integrated urban-rural development on food production resilience,employing fixed-effect models,mediating effect models,and moderation effect analyses to elucidate its mechanisms.The findings indicate:(1)Integrated urban-rural development significantly improves food production resilience;(2)Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of integrated urban-rural development on food production resilience is more pronounced in eastern and western regions compared to the central region;(3)Further mediating analysis identifies new agricultural productivity as a mediating factor in this relationship.Therefore,it is imperative to implement regionally differentiated urban-rural integration strategies,establish an integrated disaster prevention and response system,promote deep industrial integration through technological innovation,and enhance two-way human resource mobility between urban and rural areas to provide stronger safeguards for food production resilience and bolster food security.

赵雪萍;李永前

云南农业大学经济管理学院 云南,昆明 650201云南农业大学经济管理学院 云南,昆明 650201

管理科学

城乡融合发展粮食生产韧性中介效应模型调节效应

urban-rural integrationfood production resiliencemediation effect modelregulatory effect

《现代农业研究》 2026 (5)

1-8,8

国家社会科学基金项目"西南边疆民族地区农村家庭相对贫困的多维评价、测度及治理研究"(项目编号:21BMZ053)云南省现代农业麦类产业技术体系建设项目(项目编号:2023KJTX-03)云南省哲学社会科学规划社会智库项目"云南高原湖泊流域农业绿色全要素生产率提升路径研究"(项目编号:SHZK2024311).

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