高速公路交通风险多因素叠加作用与特征解析OA

[Background]The interrelationships among multiple risk factors during the occurrence of traffic accidents are highly complex.When multiple risk factors superposition simultaneously,a"su-perposition effect"is formed owing to the interactions among elements,which increases the com-plexity of traffic accident risk assessment.[Objective]To analyze the overlapping relationships among the influencing factors of traffic accident risk,this study proposed a superposition model to evaluate different dynamic traffic risk factors with the aim of identifying the superposition effects among multidimensional risk factors.[Method]First,dynamic traffic risk sources were quantified and standardized.Then,based on the relationship between the volatility of the risk series identified by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model and value at risk(VaR),a GARCH-VaR model was constructed.The interactions among the different risk factors were analyzed by evaluating the VaR sequences of each risk.[Data]By collecting data on traffic volume,inner-lane speed,inter-lane speed difference,temperature,precipitation,daily maximum wind speed,daily average wind speed,visibility,and traffic accidents from certain highway sections,a multidi-mensional dynamic risk database was established to ensure data diversity.[Result]The results indi-cated that when conducting a superimposed risk assessment,the superimposed effects among various risk factors were relatively complex.The magnitude of risk did not necessarily increase with the number of superimposed risk factors;the relationship between them was not a simple linear one but rather exhibited certain synergistic or offsetting dynamics.[Application]In conclusion,with regards to road traffic accident risk management,comprehensive risk management measures should be devel-oped for different superposition scenarios by considering the complex relationships among risk fac-tors,so as to improve the level of road traffic safety.