倭患、冷战与数字封锁:东西方贸易危机中许可证治理的五百年演进与比较OACHSSCD

The history of global trade is one of crises and governance.When trading activities are faced with crises,licensing systems become the core tool for state intervention in the market.By examining the three paradigmatic cases spanning five centuries—the Ming Dynasty's Xinpiao(trade permit)system addressing Japanese piracy and trade disorder in the 16th century,the COCOM(Coordinating Committee for Export to Communist Countries)technical embargo licensing during the 20th-century Cold War,and the contemporary U.S.semiconductor export controls,this study finds that trade licensing systems embody an inherent core logic of crisis response,power projection and efficacy contestation.Xinpiao pioneered the"trade with permit+time-limited permission"paradigm;COCOM transformed licenses into tools for ideological confrontation;digital-age licenses embed themselves into the global supply chains through technological means.A comparison of these three systems not only traces the historical evolution of state governance capabilities but also dissects such deep-seated contradictions as the tension between sovereign authority and market autonomy,and the clash between technological control and innovative counter-measures,offering historical insights for institutional choices amid the current global trade frictions.