社交网络中考虑动态群体压力的舆情演化模型OA
Opinion Dynamics Model with Varying Group Pressure in Social Networks
针对表达与私人舆情动力学模型(expressed and private opinion dynamics model,EPO)无法捕捉动态变化的群体压力,难以解释社会心理学经典理论"沉默的螺旋"(spiral of silence,SOS)的问题,提出一种改进EPO模型.将社区结构理论引入模型,刻画舆论分布的局部同质性与全局差异性;提出一种动态权重算法,将SOS理论的关键机制——意见气候、准感官统计和孤立恐惧指数进行整合建模;在此基础上,通过理论分析证明了模型的收敛性和稳定性;在一个真实网络上对模型进行了仿真,并将其与原始EPO模型进行了比较.仿真结果表明,相比于原始模型,改进后的模型能够精准地模拟现实社交网络中少数派意见的衰减过程与多数意见的自我强化效应,其在社交网络中能够更准确地捕捉在群体压力下的舆情演化规律,显著契合SOS理论的核心结论.
Aiming at the problem that the expressed and private opinion dynamics model(EPO)cannot capture the dynamic changes in group pressure and cannot explain the classic social psychology theory of"spiral of silence"(SOS),an improved EPO model is proposed.Firstly,the community structure theory is introduced into the model to characterize the local homo-geneity and global differences of public opinion distribution.Secondly,a dynamic weighting algorithm is proposed to inte-grate and model the key mechanisms of SOS theory,including opinion climate,quasi-sensory statistics,and fear of isola-tion index.On this basis,the convergence and stability of the model are demonstrated through theoretical analysis.Finally,the model is simulated on a real network and compared with the original EPO model.The simulation results show that compared with the original model,the improved model can accurately simulate the attenuation process of minority opinions and the self strengthening effect of majority opinions in real social networks.It can more accurately capture the evolution rules of opinions under group pressure in social networks,which are significantly in line with the core conclusion of SOS theory.
马文龙;曾昭龙;胡啸峰
中国人民公安大学 信息网络安全学院,北京 100038中国人民公安大学 信息网络安全学院,北京 100038中国人民公安大学 信息网络安全学院,北京 100038
信息技术与安全科学
舆情动力学表达和私人舆情(EPO)群体压力沉默的螺旋(SOS)社区结构
opinion dynamicsexpressed and private opinion(EPO)group pressurespiral of silence(SOS)community structures
《计算机工程与应用》 2026 (11)
307-316,10
国家自然科学基金(72174203)中国人民公安大学校级横向项目(H20250013).
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