2000年以来福建及邻区4级以上地震前小震调制比特征分析OA
Characteristics Analysis of the Microseismic Modulation Ratio Before MS≥4 Earthquakes in Fujian and Adjacent Areas Since 2000
基于中国地震台网中心统一地震目录,采用固体潮调制比时空扫描方法,分析了2000年以来福建及邻区发生的4级以上地震震前调制比的时空演化特征.结果显示:11次地震中有7次地震震前出现调制比高值异常,异常的识别与其持续时间和幅度密切相关.空间上,异常主要分布在震中100 km范围内;时间上,异常平均在主震前1年左右出现,且地震多发生于异常峰值回落后的9个月内.固体潮调制比方法对福建及邻区4级以上地震预测具有一定的指示意义.
Based on the unified earthquake catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,by adopting the time-space scanning method of earth tide modulation ratio,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of modulation ratio before MS≥4 earthquakes in Fujian and adjacent areas since 2000.The results show that high-value anomalies of the modulation ratio were observed before 7 out of the 11 earthquakes cases ana-lyzed.The identification of these anomalies is closely related to their duration and amplitude.Spatially,anomalies are mainly distributed within 100 km of the epicenters.Temporally,the anomalies appeared on average about one year before the mainshocks,and most earthquakes occurred within 9 months after the peak values of the anomalies began to decline.The solid earth tide modulation ratio method has a certain indicative significance for the prediction of MS≥4 in Fujian and adjacent regions.
胡淑芳;李强;袁丽文;黄艳丹
福建省地震局,福建 350000福建省地震局,福建 350000福建省地震局,福建 350000福建省地震局,福建 350000
天文与地球科学
小震调制比地震预测
Microseismic modulation ratioEarthquake prediction
《华南地震》 2026 (3)
36-43,8
福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2025J01229)
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