东鱼河鱼台站2024年"7·20"旱涝急转型暴雨洪水预报分析OA

On July 20,2024,Yutai Station of Dongyu River encountered high-intensity rainstorm flood under the condition of abrupt drought-flood transition.The measured flood peak discharge reached 767 m³/s,which was the second largest flood since the station was built.This paper adopts the runoff distribution hydrograph method to conduct flood forecasting,focusing on runoff yield calculation,confluence deduction,backwater correction and real-time rolling forecast revision,and verifies and evaluates the forecasting accuracy.The results show that this flood is characterized by short duration,high intensity,rapid rise,high peak and stable recession.After backwater correction and rolling forecast revision,the final forecasted flood peak discharge is 795 m³/s,the forecasting results are qualified and can meet the needs of flood control and dispatch in the basin.This paper also analyzes the shortcomings of traditional empirical methods in parameter calibration,and puts forward measures to improve accuracy such as optimizing model parameters,strengthening extreme case research,and improving the rolling forecast mechanism.The research results can provide practical references for rainstorm flood forecasting in similar small and medium-sized basins in Dongyu River Basin and the western plain of Nansi Lake.