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基于多源观测与陆面模式模拟的雨雪拆分研究OA

Rain-Snow Partitioning Based on Multi-Source Observations and Land Surface Model Simulations

中文摘要英文摘要

大气数值模式中降水相态的准确判别,对模拟陆面积雪生成及后续演变至关重要.因此,为研究陆面模型主流降水拆分参数化方案的模拟效果,本文开展了系统评估.验证评估包括站点与区域两个尺度,前者主要使用气象信息综合分析处理系统MICAPS观测对雨雪划分比例进行统计评估;后者以第五代全球大气再分析数据ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)驱动通用陆面模式CoLM2024模拟2005-2019年北美地区陆面要素变化,并将模型输出与独立观测对比,进行区域尺度评估.本文涉及5种常用降水相态输入方案:气温渐变、气温突变、湿球温度渐变、水凝物温度渐变以及直接输入再分析降雪驱动方案.研究发现:(1)站点统计表明,各方案间有明显差异,湿球温度渐变和水凝物温度渐变方案在降雪概率预测上更接近观测值,而气温突变方案降雪概率预测与观测的均方根误差RMSE约为水凝物温度渐变方案的2倍;(2)陆面模式模拟结果表明各方案普遍低估地表积雪,在格点均值大于1 mm的区域,积雪年均值低估超过20%;湿球温度渐变方案因其稳定的产雪特性在区域尺度上表现最佳,该方案有效改善了美国西部地区的积雪低估问题,同时维持了东部地区的积雪模拟效果;(3)基于对积雪误差的分析,研究发现模型输出误差与积雪量及海拔呈显著正相关,其相关系数R为0.86,证实了模型在高寒地区模拟积雪的局限性,为改进降水相态参数化方案提供了参考.

Accurate discrimination of precipitation phase in numerical models is crucial for simulating snow ac-cumulation on land surfaces and its subsequent evolution.To evaluate the performance of mainstream precipita-tion-phase partitioning parameterization schemes used in land surface models for snow simulation,this study conducted a systematic assessment.The evaluation was performed at both station and regional scales.At the sta-tion scale,observations from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System(MI-CAPS)were used to statistically evaluate rain-snow partitioning ratios.At the regional scale,the fifth-generation global atmospheric reanalysis dataset ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)was used to drive the Common Land Model version 2024(CoLM2024)to simulate land surface processes over North America during 2005-2019,and the model outputs were compared with independent observations for regional evaluation.Five commonly used precipitation-phase input schemes were considered in this study:air-temperature ramp,air-temperature threshold,wet-bulb-temperature ramp,hydrometeor-temperature ramp,and direct input of reanalysis snowfall forcing.The main con-clusions are as follows:(1)Station-based statistics indicate clear differences among the schemes;the wet-bulb-temperature ramp and hydrometeor-temperature ramp schemes are more consistent with observations in predict-ing snowfall probability,whereas the root mean square error(RMSE)of the air-temperature threshold scheme is approximately twice that of the hydrometeor-temperature ramp scheme.(2)Land surface model simulations show that all schemes generally underestimate surface snowpack;in regions where the grid-cell mean exceeds 1 mm,the annual mean snow amount is underestimated by more than 20%.Owing to its stable snowfall partition-ing behavior,the wet-bulb-temperature ramp scheme performs best at the regional scale,effectively alleviating snow underestimation in the western United States while maintaining reasonable snow simulation performance in the eastern United States.(3)Based on the analysis of snow simulation errors,model output errors were found to be significantly positively correlated with both snow amount and elevation,with a correlation coefficient(R)of 0.86.This confirms the limitations of the model in simulating snowpack in cold high-elevation regions and provides useful guidance for improving precipitation-phase parameterization schemes.

谭澳博;魏忠旺;戴永久

中山大学大气科学学院,广东 珠海 519082中山大学大气科学学院,广东 珠海 519082中山大学大气科学学院,广东 珠海 519082

天文与地球科学

雨雪拆分参数化方案陆面模拟积雪

rain-snow partitioningparameterizationland surface modelsnow water equivalent

《高原气象》 2026 (3)

907-919,13

广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2021B0301030007)南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)资助项目(SML2024SP008)

10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00108

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