2025年全球碳市场发展特点及趋势展望OACHSSCD
Development characteristics and trends of global carbon market in 2025
在全球气候治理从目标承诺转向实质履约的关键阶段,碳市场已成为全球协同减排的核心工具.2025年,全球碳市场覆盖范围不断扩大且联动性增强;碳排放权交易价格呈现区域分化;碳信用机制规则完善与交易创新同步推进.未来5年,全球碳市场将从区域孤岛发展到互联网络的规则统一与市场协同;履约管控从设施直接排放覆盖至企业范围二间接排放;自愿碳市场从粗放生长迈向规范发展;碳市场从政策工具转变为重塑贸易与金融秩序的核心杠杆.建议中国碳市场建设主动对接全球核心规则,以制度型开放融入全球碳市场治理体系;构建总量刚性、价格有效、覆盖全域的统一碳市场体系;打造赋能实体、链通金融、对冲风险的核心政策平台.
At a critical juncture in global climate governance as the focus shifts from target commitments to substantive implementation,the carbon market has emerged as a core tool for globally coordinated emission reduction.The global carbon market continues to expand in coverage and its interconnectedness strengthens,carbon prices exhibit regional differentiation,and the rules for carbon credit mechanisms refine alongside trading innovations in 2025.The global carbon market will evolve from regional islands to an interconnected network featuring unified rules and market coordination,the mandatory compliance will shift from covering direct emissions from facilities to including for Scope 2 indirect emissions of enterprises,the voluntary carbon market would develop from extensive growth to standardized development,the carbon market would change from a policy instrument to a core lever reshaping trade and financial order over the next five years.It proposes that China proactively align with key global rules and integrate into the global carbon market governance system through institutional opening-up,establish a unified carbon market system with hard caps,effective pricing,and comprehensive coverage;and building a core policy platform empowering the real economy,linking with the financial sector,and hedging risks.
周新媛;徐东;宋镇;李爽
中国石油规划总院中国石油规划总院中国石油规划总院中国石油规划总院
管理科学
碳排放权交易市场气候治理碳排放配额碳价自愿碳市场碳信用
carbon emission tradingclimate governancecarbon quotacarbon pricesvoluntary carbon marketcarbon credits
《国际石油经济》 2026 (5)
96-106,11
中国石油天然气股份有限公司项目《我国碳定价及预测模型研究(2025)》
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