乌克兰危机下油气产业链的风险演变、影响及启示OACHSSCD

The Ukraine crisis has completely overturned the traditional assumption of energy infrastructure"demilitarization",fundamentally reshaping the security architecture of the global oil and gas industrial chain.This paper sorts out the evolution of risks within the supply chain during the 2022-2025 Ukraine crisis,focusing on physical disruptions,capacity destruction,and maritime blockades.It indicates that the severance of pipeline gas supplies triggered a reversal in global natural gas trade flows,compelling Europe to restructure its supply system at the expense of hefty financial costs and industrial contraction.Concurrently,a convergence of cross-system risks—stemming from power outages,refinery attacks,and technological sanctions has degraded Russia's export capacity for refined products and forced a structural downgrade of its trade.Additionally,maritime blockades have escalated costs for compliant shipping and diminished the efficacy of the"shadow fleet",while targeted strikes on cross-border energy hubs signal the termination of"neutral immunity"for energy assets.The paper proposes that China must balance development with security and construct a more resilient and modernized energy security framework by fortifying the baseline security of overland corridors,building reserves of critical equipment and production capacity,and decoupling electricity-oil dependencies at key nodes.