美以伊战事对全球天然气市场的影响及中国应对策略建议OACHSSCD

This paper systematically examines such impacts of the US-Israel-Iran War on global natural gas markets as global LNG supply and demand are shifting from loose to tight in 2026.The timeline for a global LNG surplus,which was initially expected in 2026-2027 as projected at the beginning of 2026,is now delayed to 2028-2030 firstly,international natural gas prices display sharp boom-and-bust characteristics,the JKM price is projected to rebound to USD 18-20/MMBtu during summer 2026 under a moderate-stalemate scenario,while a prolonged-blockade scenario poses a tail risk of JKM breaching USD 25/MMBtu secondly,the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused LNG vessel transit volumes to collapse by more than 95%,substantially inflating shipping costs thirdly,intensified competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes has emerged in the near term and the global LNG trade architecture is reorienting from price-driven to supply-security-driven trade over the medium to long term fourthly,China's LNG imports from Qatar are severely disrupted,potentially creating a supply shortfall in 2026 under a prolonged-blockade scenario finally.It proposes countermeasures from such five dimensions as simultaneously managing supply and demand to ensure stable supply at stable prices,improving the fairness of force majeure clauses in long-term LNG contracts,optimizing the layout of import routes,accelerating the conclusion of long-term supply agreements,and strengthening long-term supply assurance mechanisms.