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美以伊战事对中东油气对外合作的影响与启示建议OACHSSCD

Impacts of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War on Middle Eastern oil and gas international cooperation and its implications

中文摘要英文摘要

2026年美国和以色列对伊朗实施大规模军事打击后,中东地区安全局势急剧恶化,地缘政治格局与全球油气市场同步进入深度调整期.在霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻、区域能源基础设施频繁遭袭以及阿联酋退出欧佩克等事件的冲击下,中东地区油气供应链稳定性大幅下降,国际资本对中东地区油气资产的风险预期持续走高,推动全球油气治理格局由传统"欧佩克主导"向更加多元化方向演变.中东资源国战略自主意识明显增强,对外合作呈现伙伴多元化、"向东看"趋势强化等特征,中国等新兴经济体在中东地区能源合作中的重要性进一步提升.未来,中东地区油气对外合作将更加注重安全保障、合作多元化与产业链协同发展.中国石油企业需进一步强化风险管理能力,完善合同与合规体系,推动"油气+新能源"综合合作模式,优化海外资产布局,以提升国际化经营的韧性与可持续发展能力.

Since the United States and Israel launched a new round of large-scale military strikes against Iran in 2026,the security situation in the Middle East has deteriorated sharply,pushing both the regional geopolitical landscape and the global oil and gas market into a phase of profound restructuring.Amid disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,frequent attacks on regional energy infrastructure,and the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC,the stability of the Middle Eastern oil and gas supply chain has significantly declined.Meanwhile,international capital's risk expectations for regional oil and gas assets have continued to rise.These developments are accelerating the transformation of the global oil and gas governance system—shifting it away from the traditional OPEC-dominated model and toward a more diversified configuration.At the same time,resource-producing countries in the Middle East are showing notably stronger strategic autonomy,with their external cooperation characterized by a more diversified set of partnerships and a clearer"Look East"orientation.This trend further elevates the strategic importance of emerging economies such as China in regional energy cooperation.Looking ahead,oil and gas cooperation in the Middle East will place greater emphasis on security assurance,diversified collaboration,and coordinated development across the industrial chain.In response,Chinese oil companies should strengthen risk management capabilities,improve contract and compliance frameworks,promote an integrated"oil&gas+new energy"cooperation model,and optimize the allocation of overseas assets—thereby enhancing the resilience and sustainable development capacity of their international operations.

王曦;郜峰;彭云;张子琦

中国石油勘探开发研究院中国石油勘探开发研究院中国石油勘探开发研究院中国石油勘探开发研究院

社会科学

美以伊战事地缘政治霍尔木兹海峡油气合作能源安全国际石油公司

the US-Israel-Iran Wargeopoliticsthe Strait of Hormuzoil and gas cooperationenergy securityinternational oil companies

《国际石油经济》 2026 (5)

37-48,12

中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司科技项目"海外业务全方位能力提升工程"(项目编号:2026ZYGJCQ001)

10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.05.005

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