美以伊战事对全球油气市场的冲击及外溢效应研究OACHSSCD

In the short term,a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would directly block oil and liquefied natural gas(LNG)exports from the Gulf region,causing international oil and gas prices to surge,forcing a drastic restructuring of global trade flows,and resulting in pronounced regional divergence in the global oil and gas market.In the long run,the conflict will reshape the price,supply,demand,and industrial chain dynamics of the global oil and gas market and push it into a new phase characterized by"high risk,high costs,and rapid transition".Global oil and gas supply will become more diversified and dispersed,high oil prices will accelerate the energy transition,and the peak in oil and gas demand will arrive earlier than expected.Shipping disruptions and security risks will rapidly spread from the upstream sector to the downstream refining and petrochemical chain and form a significant"secondary shock."The soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions triggered by the conflict are being transmitted to the global economic system through such multiple channels as trade,cost,and financial linkages.Major economies with high dependence on energy imports are re-evaluating their energy strategies and accelerating the global energy transition.It also poses a multidimensional stress test for China's energy security,China has developed the strategic capability to hedge against uncertainty with certainty,but rising import costs,pressure on export demand,and the potential risk of"stagflation"remain significant challenges.