考虑站点韧性的轨道交通网络级联失效研究OA

Urban rail transit networks are expanding with passenger flow increasing.This creates high coupling between nodes,a single site failure may cause cascading failure.In order to simulate the cascading failure evolution process within the network under the disturbance of emergencies and to quantitatively assess the inhibitory effect of station resilience factors on failure propagation,a station-resistance influence function based on the standard Sigmoid was constructed.The repair rules of station nodes considering site characteristics were designed.Based on the traditional coupled map lattice(CML)model,an improved CML model integrating passenger flow intensity,site resistance and recovery ability was proposed.Combined with the passenger flow data from Nanjing metro line network and Automatic Fare Collection System,the effectiveness and sensitivity of key parameters in the proposed model were analyzed.The cascading failure evolution process under different coupling parameters and disturbance scenarios was simulated as well.The results are shown as follows.1)During the failure propagation in the simulation of the cascading failure process within urban rail transit network,the improved CML model incorporating the station resilience factors can more accurately reflect the influence of the site resistance and recovery ability compared to the traditional CML model as well as the CML models weighted by the topology and passenger flow.2)The cascading failure caused by intentional attack is more serious than random attack,the change of topology and passenger flow coupling coefficient significantly affect failure spread scale.Besides,the transfer hub station plays a key role in the process of failure diffusion and recovery.3)High resilience stations can effectively slow down the scope and speed of failure propagation,and effective recovery measures can help reduce the maximum number of failed nodes as well as the shorten overall network recovery time.The results can provide theoretical support for the metro authorities to enhance the risk-resistance capabilities in station location and facility construction.It can also offer a reference for formulating efficient fault recovery strategies and improving network reliability.