Interannual variability of thunderstorm days over the Tibetan Plateau:Synergistic effects of the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode modulation and CAPE forcingOA
This study investigates the interannual and decadal variability of dominant summer thunderstorm day anomaly modes over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)using observational data from 39 stations during 1979-2013,focusing on their linkages to TP thermodynamics and oceanatmosphere interactions.Empirical orthogonal function and wavelet analyses reveal two primary spatiotemporal modes:The first mode exhibits a northeastsouthwest meridionally inclining dipole pattern with widespread positive anomalies over the northeastern TP,showing significant interannual variability of 35 years and 8 years.The second mode presents a southwest-northeast zonally inclining dipole pattern with prominent positive anomalies over the southwestern TP,displaying 3-year and 5-year interannual oscillations.The TP exhibits significant interannual variability in thunderstorm days,with an evident amplification after 200o.Convective available potential energy(CAPE),as a key indicator of the lightning and severe thunderstorm environment,dominates the interannual variability of TP thunderstorm days.The Indian Ocean Basin-Wide mode(IOBW)modulates thunderstorm days by influencing the large-scale divergence-convergence dynamics and moisture environment.Specifically,the IOBW strengthens the Bay of Bengal anticyclone,enhancing moisture transport to the southeastern TP,and amplifies uppertropospheric divergence.Combined with enhanced CAPE,these processes collectively lead to an increase in thunderstorm days.Multiple-variable regression analyses indicate that IOBW and CAPE collectively explain 52.1%of the interannual thunderstorm day variability.These findings advance the understanding of the mechanisms underlying TP interannual thunderstorm activity and provide crucial insights for improving regional climate projections.
Kexin Zhu;Rubin Jiang;Zhuling Sun;Shanfeng Yuan;Jing Yang
State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology/Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology/Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology/Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology/Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology/Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,China
天文与地球科学
Tibetan PlateauThunderstorm dayLarge interannual variabilityIndian ocean basin-wide modeCAPE
《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2026 (3)
P.21-27,7
supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41230419 and 42322505]the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2023YFE0121100]。
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