城市暴雨洪涝灾害的救援人员需求预测模型构建及仿真OA

The prediction of emergency rescue personnel demand serves as the foundation for the rational al-location of rescue teams,and accurate forecasting of such demand is essential.However,research specifically fo-cusing on the demand for"rescue personnel"as a core active resource remains relatively weak.Therefore,in this study,the main factors influencing rescue personnel demand are determined using an interpretive structural model,and a system dynamics model of rescue personnel demand is constructed based on the causal feedback mechanisms among these factors.Considering the complexity of disaster scenarios,three rescue efficiency levels(high,medium,and low)are set to characterize the difficulty of rescue operations.Simulations of the rescue per-sonnel demand prediction model are conducted using Vensim software,revealing the dynamic trends of rescue personnel demand under different rescue efficiency levels.The results show that:①The influencing factors of rescue personnel demand for urban rainstorm and flood disasters include affected area,population requiring emer-gency transfer and resettlement,conditions of the affected area,population density,affected population,and rain-fall conditions.②The demand for firefighters and military personnel generally shows a decreasing trend,with a relatively slow decline in the initial stage,a significantly accelerated decline in the middle stage,and eventual sta-bilization;the demand for social rescue personnel shows a slight decrease in the middle stage but an overall in-creasing trend;the total demand for rescue personnel increases rapidly in the early stage and then stabilizes,fol-lowed by a decrease and then a slow increase in the middle and late stages.When comparing the three rescue effi-ciency levels,higher rescue efficiency is associated with lower rescue personnel demand,while the change trends remain consistent.③The demand for military personnel is most sensitive to fluctuations in population density and rescue efficiency,whereas the demand for social rescue personnel is least sensitive.By clarifying the influ-ence pathways of rescue personnel demand,a basis for relevant departments is provided in this study to conduct consultations and assessments and to formulate rescue plans,thereby enabling the rational adjustment of rescue forces and reduction of resource waste in response to urban rainstorm and flood disasters.