基于PLUS-InVEST模型的长江流域碳储量驱动因素分析与多情景模拟预测OA

The Yangtze River Basin is a vital ecological and economic zone in China,and its carbon storage dynamics are crucial for regional carbon balance.This study integrates the PLUS and InVEST models,combined with geographic detectors and multi-scenario simulations,to analyze the evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Basin from 2000 to 2020,and to predict carbon storage in the basin in 2030.The results indicate that the carbon storage in the Yangtze River Basin increased from 424 million tons in 2000 to 442 million tons in 2020,with an uneven spatial distribution and forests contributing over 55%.Elevation,slope,temperature,and gross domestic product(GDP)are the primary driving factors,with their interactions exhibiting nonlinear enhancement.Multi-scenario predictions show that carbon storage in 2030 is sensitive to climate pathways,with the SSP5-8.5 scenario yielding the highest carbon storage(49.2～49.3 billion tons),while the impact of land-use policies is relatively minor.The study reveals that climatic factors dominate carbon storage changes,while land-use policies regulate land cover structure.The research provides a scientific basis for low-carbon development in the basin.