转移性收入对农村居民消费的影响研究OA

Boosting rural residents'consumption and promoting the upgrading of consumption structure are inherent requirements for constructing the new"dual circulation"development paradigm.As a key variable for regulating income distribution and stabilizing people's livelihood expectations,the specific impact and mechanism of transfer income on rural residents' consumption urgently need in-depth research.Based on the micro panel data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2016 to 2022,this paper systematically analyzes the impact of transfer income on rural residents' consumption level and consumption structure by constructing a fixed-effect model.The study finds that:First,transfer income has a significant promoting effect on rural residents' consumption,with regional and group heterogeneity.The promoting effect is more significant in the western regions and areas with lower economic development levels,and is particularly pronounced for middle-aged male rural residents.Second,transfer income has a stronger pulling effect on the consumption of low-income groups and can effectively promote the upgrading of consumption structure,especially having a significant boosting effect on developmental consumption.Third,mechanism tests show that transfer income indirectly promotes consumption mainly through two channels:increasing rural residents' current income and stabilizing their expected income;at the same time,it also has an obvious redistribution function.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes to construct a two-tier security mechanism emphasizing both"immediate income increase and long-term stable expectations",implement a differentiated transfer payment strategy combining"regional focus and group precision",and simultaneously optimize the rural consumption environment and supply structure,so as to systematically release rural consumption potential and promote the upgrading of its consumption structure upgrading.