制造业"四链"耦合协调度时空演变研究OACHSSCD

Promoting the deep integration of the innovation chain,industrial chain,capital chain,and talent chain("four chains")is an important path for enhancing national industrial competitiveness and achieving high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)from 2014 to 2023,an evaluation index system for the"four chains"in the manufacturing industry is constructed.The Critic-entropy weight method is used to determine the weights,and the coupling coordination degree model is employed to quantify their synergy level.Further,a spatial analysis framework is established,and the kernel density estimation,global Moran′s I index,LISA time path,and Theil index decomposition methods are successively adopted to conduct empirical research from the aspects of distribution dynamics,spatial correlation,agglomeration stability,and sources of differences.The results show that from 2014 to 2023,the coupling coordination degree of the"four chains"presented a spatial pattern of"high in the southeast and low in the northwest",with the national average shifting from fluctuation to stability.Low-value provincial-level regions accelerated their catch-up,while high-value provincial-level regions saw a slowdown in growth.The kernel density map displayed the characteristics of"wider bandwidth,lower main peak,and rightward shift of the tail",indicating a slow expansion of regional differences.Spatial correlation was significant,showing an agglomeration pattern of"high-high"and"low-low"adjacency.The Theil index analysis indicated that the overall difference gradually increased to 0.025,with intra-group differences still dominant but the contribution rate declined during the periods of 2015-2016;inter-group differences continued to increase,with the contribution of the North China regions decreasing,while that of the South China and Southwest China regions increasing,becoming the primary source of regional differences.This paper,by integrating the analysis chain of"spatial distribution-correlation stability-sources of differences",reveals the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of the"four chains"integration,providing empirical evidence and policy references for optimizing regional industrial layout and resource allocation.