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突破参数范围限制:梯度下降法在水文模型率定中的优势OA

Overcoming parameter boundary constraints.Advantages of gradient descent algorithms in hydrological model calibration

中文摘要英文摘要

过程驱动水文模型的参数率定长期以来主要依赖于遗传算法等传统优化算法,而基于梯度下降法的参数优化研究则相对缺乏.为探究梯度下降算法在该领域的适用性,并系统比较其与传统优化算法的性能差异,本研究选取梯度下降算法组的Adam、AMSGrad、Adadelta三种优化算法,以及传统优化算法组的协方差矩阵自适应进化策略(CMA-ES)、自适应模拟退火算法(ASA)、遗传算法(GA),共计六种方法,对 Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)模型进行参数率定.结果表明,梯度下降算法在计算效率和模拟稳定性方面优势显著.在径流拟合精度上,纳什效率系数(NSE)较传统算法提升约0.01~0.02;峰值流量误差(TPE)最大降低约23%.此外,与传统优化算法严重依赖预设参数范围不同,梯度下降法可使参数自适应突破范围限制并优化至更合理的参数空间,显著降低了对参数先验知识的依赖.本研究为水文模型参数优化提供了有效途径,具有一定的理论价值与应用潜力.

Parameter calibration for process-driven hydrological models has long predominantly relied on traditional optimization algorithms such as Genetic Algorithms,while relatively fewer previous studies focused on parameter optimization based on the gradient descent methods.This study aims to examine the applicability of gradient descent algorithms in this field and compare their performance systematically against traditional optimization algorithms.We calibrate the parameters of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)model using six optimization methods-three gradient descent(GD)algorithms of Adam,AMSGrad,and Adadelta,and three traditional optimization algorithms of Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy(CMA-ES),Adaptive Simulated Annealing(ASA),and Genetic Algorithm(GA).The results indicate the GD algorithms are better in computational efficiency and simulation stability.They raise runoff fitting accuracy or Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)by roughly 0.01-0.02 compared to traditional algorithms,and reduce Top Peak Error(TPE)by up to 23%.And,they can explore adaptively beyond initial parameter constraints-different from the traditional optimization algorithms that heavily rely on predefined parameter ranges-so that they are effective in guiding parameters toward a more physically reasonable space and significantly reducing dependence on parameter specification.This study has achieved an effective approach for hydrological model parameter optimization,useful for further theoretical or practical studies.

高帅;黄雯琦;郑徽峰;黄跃飞

福州大学 土木工程学院,福州 350108福州大学 土木工程学院,福州 350108||河海大学 水文水资源学院,南京 210098三明市水利局,福建 三明 365000清华大学 水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室,北京 100084

天文与地球科学

HBV模型梯度下降参数率定洪水模拟

HBV modelgradient descentparameter calibrationflood simulation

《水力发电学报》 2026 (5)

30-43,14

国家自然科学基金(52409014)

10.11660/slfdxb.20260503

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