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长期护理保险对银发经济市场活力的影响OACHSSCD

The Impact of Long-term Care Insurance on the Vitality of the Silver Economy Market:A Perspective of Elderly Product Supply

中文摘要英文摘要

长期护理保险制度是健全我国养老保障体系的核心内容之一,从老年产品供给视角探讨其对银发经济市场活力的影响具有重要现实意义.基于工商登记注册数据和中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,利用交叠双重差分法分析我国长护险试点政策对银发制造企业市场进入的影响.研究发现,长护险的实施显著扩大了老年产品供给,使试点城市年度新增注册的老年用品及相关产品制造企业数量增加了39.4%.其作用机制在于,长护险政策通过风险分担效应提高老年人的即期消费意愿、通过养老服务产业发展的联动效应促进新企业进入,从而提升了银发经济市场活力.异质性分析发现,与健身休闲娱乐类老年产品制造相比,长护险政策对老年医疗器械与康复辅具、智能与可穿戴设备领域的制造企业具有更强的激励效应.在不同政策设计中,覆盖重度及中度失能人群、职工与居民均纳入参保范围、支持康复辅具租赁费报销、鼓励居家与社区护理以及按服务项目支付的试点城市,政策激励效应更为显著.研究结果为完善我国长护险制度、推动银发经济高质量发展提供了有益参考.

The long-term care insurance(LTCI)system is one of the core contents of improving China's elderly care security system.From the perspective of elderly product supply,exploring its impact on the vitality of the silver economy market holds significant practical importance.Based on industrial registration data and China Health and Retirement Logitudinal Study(CHARLS)data,this paper uses the overlapping difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact of the long-term care insurance pilot policy on the entry of elderly manufacturing enterprises into the market.The results demonstrate that LTCI significantly expands the supply of elderly products,increasing the number of newly registered elderly product manufacturing enterprises in the pilot cities by 39.4%annually.The mechanism is that LTCI policy improves the immediate consumption willingness of the elderly through the risk-sharing effect,and promotes the entry of new enterprises through the linkage effect of the development of the pension service industry,thus enhancing the vitality of the silver economy market.Heterogeneity analysis shows that compared with the manufacturing of fitness,leisure and entertainment products for the elderly,the LTCI policy has a stronger incentive effect on the manufacturing enterprises in the fields of medical devices and rehabilitation aids for the elderly as well as intelligent and wearable devices.In different policy designs,pilot cities that cover severely and moderately disabled populations,include both employees and residents in the insurance coverage,support the reimbursement of rental fees for rehabilitation aids,encourage home and community care,and adopt the payment by service items have more significant policy incentive effects.The research findings provide a useful reference for improving China's long-term care insurance system and promoting the high-quality development of the silver economy.

陈琳;管鑫

河北经贸大学 财政税务学院,河北 石家庄 050062河北经贸大学 经济学院,河北 石家庄 050062

社会科学

长期护理保险人口老龄化银发经济老年产品市场活力

long-term care insurancepopulation agingsilver economyelderly productmarket vitality

《人口与经济》 2026 (3)

86-96,11

河北省社会科学基金项目"银发经济视角下河北养老服务事业与产业协同发展的路径研究"(HB24YJ034).

10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.031

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