超低生育水平视域下的人口安全隐患及治理方略OACHSSCD

In the collaborative evolution of Chinese modernization and the deep transformation of population development,population security has become a basic strategic issue related to economic development and social stability.The hidden danger of population security is a potential risk factor that exists at present and has not yet been transformed into a real threat,but may trigger a security crisis in the future.Its core characteristics are the concealment of risk,the stage of evolution,the lag of impact and the feasibility of intervention.This definition provides a theoretical basis for the forward-looking measures of hidden danger governance of population security.As the source of population insecurity,the ultra-low fertility level itself and its long-term impact on population factors such as population size,population structure,population quality and population distribution form a risk transmission mechanism in various fields of economy and society,resulting in the continuous accumulation of hidden dangers of population security,which goes beyond the scope of general population problems.By using the scenario fertility level prediction scheme,this paper analyzes the internal law of population factor changes,and reveals its multidimensional impact on the overall national security system.To control the hidden danger of population security,it is necessary to improve the population development strategy and promote the high-quality development of the population as the command,running through the adaptation logic of the endogenous law of the population system and the external system.On the one hand,based on population monitoring and early warning,we should establish and improve the framework for high-quality population development around"one small,one middle-aged and one old",and promote the focus of governance from the end-of-pipe problem response to the front-end hidden danger prevention and control;On the other hand,we should promote the benign interaction between population development and economic and social development goals,achieve the goal of balanced population development and overall national security,and build a solid population security support for the modernization process.