广东省光伏用地空间适宜性评价及潜在减排效益预测OA

Driven by the"double carbon"goal,photovoltaic power generation has become a key pathway for the low-carbon transformation of energy.Focusing on Guangdong Province,a major energy-consuming region,this study constructs a multi-system coordinated evaluation framework and index system that integrate"resource endowment-development demand-bearing constraints"to evaluate the suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic land.Spatial clustering analysis of power demand and development potential was innovatively introduced to address the mismatch between supply and demand in photovoltaic development and to provide a scientific basis for the optimal layout of regional photovoltaic land.The results show that(1)the potential for photovoltaic land development in Guangdong Province is substantial,and the highly suitable photovoltaic area is 13,292 km2(accounting for 7.3％of the total land area).When the highly suitable area is fully developed(Q4 development scenario),the annual photovoltaic power generation in Guangdong Province reaches 960.5 billion kWh,which can meet the electricity demand of the entire province.(2)The spatial differentiation of photovoltaic land development potential in Guangdong Province is significant.The highly suitable and suitable areas account for 38％of the assessed area and are mainly distributed in the hills of eastern Guangdong and the Leizhou Peninsula.The low-suitability areas(generally suitable,less suitable,and unsuitable areas)account for 62％of the assessment area and are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of northern Guangdong and the core area of the Pearl River Delta.Photovoltaic development in northern Guangdong is limited by undulating terrain,while available space in the Pearl River Delta is insufficient due to dense construction land.(3)Clustering results of suitable photovoltaic areas and electricity demand indicate that the mismatch between supply and demand of photovoltaic power generation in Guangdong Province is significant.The clustering results identify a conflict pattern of"supply less than demand"in the Pearl River Delta and"supply greater than demand"in eastern Guangdong.Huizhou City,as a high-high agglomeration area,demonstrates both local consumption capacity and radiation capacity toward the Pearl River Delta,indicating high priority for development.(4)The potential emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic power generation in Guangdong Province are significant.The development of all highly suitable areas could save 293 million tons of standard coal per year and reduce 781 million tons of CO2 emissions,corresponding to an emission reduction value of 53.29 billion yuan.At the same time,emissions of SO2,NOx,and TSP could be reduced by 6.46 million tons,2.94 million tons,and 4.99 million tons,respectively.Vegetation under photovoltaic panels provides an additional carbon sink of 27,900 tons,contributing non-negligible emission reduction and ecological benefits.This study provides a decision-making paradigm of"potential assessment-spatial optimization-benefit quantification"for the precise allocation of provincial photovoltaic land.It proposes establishing differentiated land-use rules strictly linked to development potential levels,incorporating spatial synergy elements into the photovoltaic land planning system,and ultimately achieving a win-win outcome between energy transformation and land space optimization.