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2025全球碳中和进展评估及模式分类OA

Global carbon neutrality progress assessment and typology classification in 2025

中文摘要英文摘要

值《巴黎协定》达成十周年之际,全球气候治理已进入"目标承诺"转向"实际行动"的关键阶段,系统客观评估各国气候应对进展对推动《巴黎协定》目标落实具有重要意义.文中基于全球198个国家和地区的217项细分指标数据,构建了涵盖目标、政策、行动与成效的全球碳中和进展评估体系,对各国的碳中和进程进行综合量化评价.结果表明,2024-2025年间,全球碳中和进程呈现"目标与政策维度稳步提升、行动维度基本持平、减排成效维度尚未显现"的特征.目标与政策维度稳步提升反映了尽管少数国家出现摇摆,但全球绿色低碳转型的趋势没有变;减排成效维度尚未显现的主要瓶颈是存在政策执行力不足及技术转化滞后等问题.依据目标与成效表现,各国被划分为"气候能力者""低调减排者""转型蓄势者"及"低碳成长者"4种模式,2025年全球有92个国家发生了阵营迁移,动态变化显著.通过了解全球碳中和进程下各国目标设定、政策执行与技术应用方面的差异和动态,为推进全球气候治理提供参考.

As the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement,global climate governance has shifted from'commitment to targets' to'implementation of actions' .Systematic evaluation of national climate progress is essential for achieving the Agreement's targets.This study uses 217 indicators from 198 countries and regions to build a comprehensive assessment framework covering target,policy,action,and effectiveness.The results show that,between 2024 and 2025,the global carbon neutrality process is characterized by steady progress in target and policy,stagnation in action,and limited effectiveness in emission reductions.Progress in target and policy reflects a continued global trend toward green transformation,despite fluctuations in some countries.The lack of visible emission reductions is mainly due to insufficient policy enforcement and delays in technological implementation.Based on target and effectiveness performance,countries are grouped into four groups:climate leaders,low-key achievers,transition challengers and emerging players.In 2025,92 countries shifted between these groups,showing pronounced dynamics.This study provides insights into the differences and changes in national approaches to climate goals,policy,and technology,contributing to global climate governance.

李子琛;张天翼;张诗卉;郑馨竺;王灿

中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249清华大学环境学院,北京 100084中国人民大学生态环境学院,北京 100872中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249清华大学环境学院,北京 100084

气候变化全球盘点碳中和进展

Climate changeGlobal stocktakeProgress in carbon neutrality

《气候变化研究进展》 2026 (2)

252-257,6

国家自然科学基金委专项项目(72348001)中国科协青年人才托举工程项目(YESS20230197)

10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.255

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