生物质航煤全产业链碳排放及社会经济影响——基于CGE-LCA模型的FT燃料情景分析OA

This study proposes a novel integrated dynamic CGE-LCA framework to evaluate the economy-wide,social,and environmental impacts of producing sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)from agricultural residues through the Fischer-Tropsch(FT)synthesis pathway in China.Unlike conventional assessments that rely on static life-cycle analysis or partial-equilibrium approaches,the proposed framework endogenously links FT fuel technology learning,blending mandates,cost pass-through mechanisms,and sectoral interactions within a dynamic general equilibrium setting,enabling a consistent simulation of FT industry development from 2025 to 2040.Scenario-based simulations indicate that aviation mitigation costs are highly sensitive to FT fuel prices.Under a technology stagnation scenario(S1),mandatory FT blending results in an average annual abatement cost of 132.4 billion CNY,whereas under a cost-parity scenario with conventional jet fuel(S3),mitigation costs decline by 77.7％.Incorporating demand responses reveals that transferring additional fuel costs to passengers leads to a measurable contraction in air travel demand,highlighting the importance of demand-side feedbacks often omitted in existing studies.The model further captures the macroeconomic spillover effects of FT industry expansion.Under the S3-Q3 scenario,China's GDP increases by 0.96％and the employment rate rises by 0.99％by 2040,while large-scale utilization of agricultural residues raises farmers' income by up to 277.0 billion CNY.From an environmental perspective,when the FT blending ratio reaches 47％in 2040,cumulative CO2 emissions from civil aviation are reduced by 23.9％relative to the baseline scenario.By embedding process-based life-cycle emission coefficients into the CGE production structure,the framework identifies the production stage as the dominant source of FT fuel life-cycle emissions,accounting for 65.3％of total CO2 emissions.Although FT deployment increases emissions in energy supply and other transport sectors,the net mitigation effect remains positive due to larger emission reductions in agriculture and civil aviation.Overall,the proposed CGE-LCA framework provides a transferable and policy-relevant tool for assessing large-scale SAF deployment and supports the formulation of strategies for the high-quality development of China's biomass-based aviation fuel industry.