氢燃料电池汽车多场景全生命周期经济性动态评价与预测研究OA

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles serve as a pivotal carrier for the low-carbon transformation of transportation,playing a vital role in optimizing energy structures and achieving carbon neutrality.However,their commercial promotion is constrained by technological limitations,infrastructure gaps,and economic costs.Therefore,systematic economic evaluation is urgently needed to clarify their development pathway.Current studies are mostly limited to static analyses of vehicle purchase and fuel costs,neglecting full life-cycle costs(e.g.,hydrogen production,storage,and refueling),environmental externalities(e.g.,carbon reduction benefits),and dynamic policy impacts,leading to fragmented evaluations.Furthermore,existing models lack sufficient sensitivity to technological iterations and regional resource differences,which weakens their value for decision-making.To address these gaps,this study combines techno-economic analysis with dynamic modeling to construct a full life-cycle model,evaluating purchase,operation,and end-of-life costs across four scenarios:passenger cars,urban buses,logistics vehicles,and port applications.The main conclusions are as follows.First,driven by an 8.7％annual reduction in purchase costs,the cost of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars will achieve parity with electric vehicles by 2035.Second,hydrogen-powered buses,supported by a driving range of more than 500 km range and reliable performance at-30℃,will reach cost equilibrium with electric buses by 2031 and establish a comprehensive advantage by 2035.Third,light-duty hydrogen trucks will cost less than traditional fuel vehicles by 2027 due to their fast refueling time of less than 10 minutes.Supported by high-density hydrogen storage of at least 300 Wh/kg,heavy-duty hydrogen trucks will surpass diesel heavy-duty trucks in economic efficiency by 2031 and become more cost-effective than electric heavy-duty trucks after 2032.