新古典现实主义视角下高市早苗政权的情报体制变革解析OACHSSCD

[Purpose]Against the backdrop of a persistently complex international security environment,Japan launched a new round of in-telligence system reform around 2025,which has drawn extensive attention from the academic community.This article aims to analyze the decision-making logic and path planning of the Takaichi administration,in order to explain why Japan's intelligence system,after experi-encing a long period of"institutional inertia",chose to significantly promote the reform of its intelligence system at this time.[Method]This article takes neoclassical realism as the core analytical framework and constructs a causal chain of"system pressure-domestic politics-policy output".Through a thorough review of relevant policy texts and political processes,this paper examines how external security pressures are ultimately transformed into specific reform plans through the filtering and catalysis of mediating variables such as political leaders'perception of threats,changes in the structure of the ruling coalition,and bureaucratic constraints.[Result/Conclusion]Research has found that the reform in Japan in 2025 is not a patchwork adjustment to the existing system,but rather a structural breakthrough carried out by Japan.Under the strong impetus of the Takaichi administration,Japan is committed to breaking the deeply rooted"provincial and ministerial separatism"and establishing a centralized intelligence system dominated by official residences and with vertical command.This shift indicates that Japan is attempting to end its long-term intelligence operation model mainly based on"passive defense"and gradually transform towards a direction with the ability to integrate and obtain intelligence from all sources in advance.