四川省水生态安全与驱动力预测研究OA

Predicting the level of sustainable utilization of regional water resources under the impacts of climate change and human activities is of great significance for formulating reasonable water resource planning strategies and ensuring the sustainable development of social economy.By coupling the three-dimensional water ecological footprint with system dynamics,a system dynamics model of the three-dimensional water ecological footprint in Sichuan Province was established to dynamically predict the water ecological security levels under four scenarios considering the impacts of climate change and human activities.On this basis,the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model were adopted to quantify the decoupling relationship between water ecological footprint and economic development,as well as the driving forces causing changes in water ecological footprint.The results show that:the water resources are in an ecological surplus state under all four scenarios;the consumption of water resource capital flow is in a relatively stable state;the decoupling effect between water ecological footprint and economic growth presents strong and relatively strong decoupling states;the economic effect and technological effect are the primary driving forces promoting and inhibiting the growth of water ecological footprint,respectively.Through comparison,the water ecological security level under scenario TS1 is the highest,which promotes the coordinated and sustainable development of water resource utilization,social and economic development,and ecological environment protection,and is suitable for the future development model of Sichuan Province.