不确定性背景下我国居民消费决策的不对称性OACHSSCD

This paper takes the consumption level data of urban residents in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2023 as a sample to explore the asymmetry and occurrence period of dynamic adjustment of urban residents' consumption decisions under the background of uncertainty.Research has shown that(1)the main source of uncertainty faced by urban residents is expenditure uncertainty,with residential expenditure uncertainty being the most prominent;however,the main source of uncertainty affecting urban residents' consumption is income uncertainty,followed by uncertainty in education and healthcare expenditures,with housing expenditure uncertainty having the least impact.(2)The dynamic adjustment of urban residents' consumption decisions under uncertain circumstances is asymmetric.Generally speaking,urban residents adjust to uncertainty that is"worse than expected"faster than uncertainty that is"better than expected".This conclusion applies to uncertainty in income,education,and healthcare expenditures,which is also the main reason why uncertainty generally has a negative impact on residents' consumption.However,the conclusion is opposite under the uncertainty of housing expenses.The asymmetry of the former is mainly caused by loss avoidance,while the latter is a liquidity constraint.(3)The asymmetry of dynamic adjustment of urban residents' consumption decisions is limited to the short term and has a significant lag effect.