粤港澳大湾区雨潮复合灾害遭遇分析OA
Analysis of rainfall-tide compound disasters in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
通过分析粤港澳大湾1960-2020 年的降水量和潮位数据,并结合泰森多边形方法与相关性分析,揭示了雨潮复合灾害与风暴增水的非一致性现象及其空间分布特征.结果表明:大湾区风暴增水的非一致性显著,其中口门地区的变异点集中于 1987 年前后,上游流域的变异点则提前至1975 年前后;雨潮复合灾害的变异点在口门处为 1987 年前后,中腹部流域延后至 1994 年;风暴增水的非一致性主要与气候变化、上游建闸和河口挖沙等人类活动相关,而复合灾害的变化显著受到风暴增水与降雨相互作用的影响.
By analyzing precipitation and tide level data of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)from 1960 to 2020,and combining the Thiessen polygon method with correlation analysis,the non-coincidence phenomena and spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall-tide compound disasters and storm surges were revealed.The results indicate that the non-coincidence of storm surges in the GBA is significant.Specifically,the variation points in the estuary regions are concentrated around 1987,whereas those in the upstream basins occur earlier,around 1975.For rainfall-tide compound disasters,the variation points are observed around 1987 in the estuary areas but are delayed to 1994 in the central basin.The non-coincidence of storm surges is primarily driven by climate change and human activities,such as upstream dam construction and estuarine sand mining.Furthermore,the variations in compound disasters are significantly influenced by the interaction between storm surges and rainfall.
戴驰航;季小梅;乔煜;张蔚
河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室||河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室||河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院||中国交通建设集团有限公司河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室||河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院
雨潮复合灾害风暴增水非一致性相关性分析粤港澳大湾区
rainfall-storm surge compound disasterstorm surgenon-coincidencecorrelation analysisthe Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》 2026 (3)
51-59,77,10
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100)
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