伊犁河谷土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应的多情景模拟OA

Based on the land use data of the Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use evo-lution patterns under four scenarios of natural development,economic development,ecological protection,and planning intervention in 2030,and the temporal and spatial dynamic changes and spatial agglomeration characteristics of ecosystem service value(ESV)un-der each scenario were calculated and quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that under the four development scenarios,the ESV in 2030 in the study area was shown as ecological protection scenario＞planning intervention scenario＞natural development scenar-io＞economic development scenario.Under the natural development scenario,the area of forest land and grassland decreased signifi-cantly;under the economic development scenario,construction land expanded rapidly;under the ecological protection scenario,the rate of forest land reduction slowed down,and under the planning intervention scenario,the area of cultivated land increased substan-tially.The spatial distribution pattern of ESV in Yili River Valley under multi-scenario simulation in 2020 and 2030 was relatively sta-ble.The high-value area increased under the planning intervention scenario,and the high-value area in the north and south-central region changed to the low-value area under the economic development scenario.The extremely significant hot spots of ESV were main-ly distributed in the Ili River Basin and the southern Tianshan Mountains,and the extremely significant cold spots were mostly distrib-uted in the central and northern parts of the valley,corresponding to the spatial pattern of land use.Scientific planning and layout of fu-ture land use was the key path to enhance regional ESV and maintain a good ecological environment.