特朗普政府电力战略与美国人工智能的竞争力局限OACHSSCD
Power Strategy of the Trump Administration and Competitive Constraints on the U.S.AI Industry
在强化对华人工智能竞争的背景下,美国人工智能产业日益面临突出的电力供需矛盾.这主要体现为:美国的人工智能算力扩张导致该产业的电力需求快速增加,这凸显了美国发电能力增长缓慢以及电网基础设施韧性不足的问题,并直接导致诸多人工智能企业的数据中心建设扩张面临电力瓶颈.鉴此,美国政府致力于提升电力供应能力,保障国内经济与人工智能产业的发展.其主要措施包括:依托化石能源发电与复兴核能发电保障人工智能产业的电力需求;通过增加投资等方式改善电网系统的运行效能,并推动大型科技企业承担电力基础设施建设成本.尽管美国试图通过升级其电力基础设施,提升其人工智能产业的对华竞争优势,但仍将面临难以克服的制约因素.其主要体现在:在建设与升级电力基础设施的过程中,美国设备制造等产业能力不足;特朗普政府的电力产业发展政策导向存在局限;追求短期回报的市场导向侵蚀对电力基础设施的投资动能.这也推动中美人工智能竞争的主线从技术竞争向基于技术的能效竞争转变,而中国电力与绿色能源产业优势对人工智能产业的支撑作用也将日益凸显.
Amid escalating Artificial Intelligence(AI)competition with China,the U.S.AI industry is increasingly confronted with a pronounced imbalance between electricity supply and demand.This is primarily reflected in the rapid surge in power demand driven by the expansion of AI computing capacity-a trend that has laid bare the slow growth of the country's power generation capability and the insufficient resilience of its grid infrastructure,directly resulting in power bottlenecks that constrain the construction and expansion of data centers for numerous AI companies.In response,the U.S.government is strategically focused on enhancing electricity supply capacity to support the nation's economy and the growth of its AI industry.Key measures include relying on fossil fuel power generation and reviving nuclear energy to meet the electricity demands of AI;improving the operational efficiency of the power grid through increased investment;and encouraging tech giants to bear the costs of constructing electricity infrastructure.However,several constraints within the electricity sector will limit the U.S.ability to strengthen its advantages in AI.These constraints manifest in three primary ways:insufficient domestic manufacturing capacity for equipment needed to build and upgrade power infrastructure;limitations in the policy direction of the Trump administration's electricity industry development;and a market orientation favoring short-term returns that erodes investment in long-term power infrastructure projects.Consequently,these dynamics are shifting the focus of the Sino-American AI competition from a single technological contest towards a competition in energy efficiency underpinned by technology.
孙海泳
上海国际问题研究院公共政策与创新研究所(上海 邮编:200233)
社会科学
人工智能特朗普政府电力战略能源美国对华竞争
artificial intelligenceTrump Administrationelectric power strategyenergyU.S.competition with China
《国际论坛》 2026 (3)
79-98,20
本文系2025年度国家社科基金重大课题"二战后世界经济格局变迁规律研究"(项目批准号:25&ZD104)的阶段性成果.
评论