首页|期刊导航|国际论坛|"科技加速主义"与美对华"技术脱钩"悖论:基于半导体与AI产业的实证分析

"科技加速主义"与美对华"技术脱钩"悖论:基于半导体与AI产业的实证分析OACHSSCD

The Paradox of Techno-Accelerationism and U.S.-China Technological Decoupling:An Empirical Analysis Based on Semiconductor and AI Industries

中文摘要英文摘要

近年来,美国在半导体、人工智能等关键领域对华实施出口管制与投资限制,试图通过"技术脱钩"维持领先地位.美国政策话语频繁援引"科技加速主义"理念,强调通过技术迭代加速确保国家竞争优势,但这一理念在政策实践中呈现显著扭曲——加速主义的核心机制依赖网络效应、规模经济与知识流动,而技术脱钩却采取封闭性排斥手段,二者在逻辑起点上存在根本张力.基于半导体和人工智能产业的实证分析表明,脱钩战略呈现三重悖论:封锁非但未能延缓中国进步,反而触发"压力—突破"机制推动加速追赶;脱钩破坏了技术加速赖以成立的网络效应与规模经济;美国自身亦因市场收缩、人才断流与创新网络弱化而付出代价.真正可持续的技术领先,必须建立在开放竞争、多边治理与知识共享的基础之上.在高度互联的全球科技生态中,依靠封闭手段追求技术领先只能南辕北辙,只有当"加速"的目标突破民族主义框架,转而致力于服务全人类共同福祉时,科技的潜能才能充分释放.

In recent years,the United States has imposed sweeping export controls and investment restrictions on China in semiconductors and artificial intelligence,seeking to maintain technological leadership through"decoupling".American policy discourse frequently invokes"techno-accelerationism"—the idea that accelerating technological iteration ensures national competitive advantage-yet this ideology has been significantly distorted in practice.The core mechanisms of techno-accelerationism depend on network effects,economies of scale,and the free flow of knowledge,while technological decoupling adopts exclusionary closure,creating a fundamental tension on the logical foundation of the strategy.Empirical analysis of the semiconductor and AI industries reveals a triple paradox:containment has not slowed China's technological progress but instead triggered a"pressure-breakthrough"mechanism that accelerates catch-up;decoupling undermines the very network effects and economies of scale upon which technological acceleration depends;and the United States itself has paid a significant price through market contraction,talent drain,and the weakening of its innovation networks.Truly sustainable technological leadership must be built on open competition,multilateral governance,and knowledge sharing.

朱兆一;杨盈竹

北京大学汇丰商学院智库中东研究所(深圳 邮编:518071)北京物资学院外国语言与文化学院(北京 邮编:101126)

社会科学

科技加速主义中美技术脱钩半导体产业人工智能创新悖论

Techno-accelerationismU.S.-China technology decouplingsemiconductor industryArtificial Intelligenceinnovation paradox

《国际论坛》 2026 (3)

61-78,18

本文为2022年北京社科基金项目(编号:22ZGC009)的阶段性成果.

10.13549/j.cnki.cn11-3959/d.2026.03.004

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