中国城市交通碳排放时空演变格局与空间溢出效应研究OACHSSCD

The transportation sector is a significant contributor to China's carbon emissions and plays a pivotal role in achieving carbon peaking and neutrality goals.This study measures transportation carbon emissions for 287 Chinese cities from 1997 to 2021 and investigates their spatiotemporal evolution and intercity spillover effects using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial Markov chain methods.The results reveal that:1)China's transportation carbon emissions increased cumulatively by 738 million tons,with total emissions rising by 543.45％,and urban transportation emissions exhibiting a pronounced right-skewed distribution.2)Since 2013,urban transportation carbon emissions have displayed a spatial pattern centered on megacities and large cities,structured around one-hour commuting zones and gradually decreasing toward surrounding areas.3)Per capita urban transportation carbon emissions exhibit a distinct"hierarchical interleaving"pattern,indicating that their relationship with city scale is not a simple linear one.4)Per capita transportation carbon emissions are significantly influenced by neighboring cities,demonstrating a clear"club effect,"and show limited mobility across adjacent periods.Projections suggest that future per capita transportation carbon emissions will increase markedly and exhibit a left-skewed distribution dominated by high-value clusters.By adopting the city as the unit of analysis,this study provides more refined and region-specific insights to support the optimization of China's transportation carbon governance framework and the formulation of differentiated regulatory policies.