基于产业结构优化的多环境要素目标间冲突与协同研究OACHSSCD

With the increasing costs of end-of-pipe pollution control and the implementation of green development strategies at this development stage,industrial structure adjustment has become an important means for pollutant prevention and control.Considering that industrial structure adjustment strategies may conflict or be antagonistic under the constraints of different environmental element targets,a reasonable structural emission reduction strategy is particularly critical.As a pilot demonstration zone for"Beautiful China"construction,Zhejiang Province's industrial structure adjustment and multi-environmental element collaborative governance are typical and policy-oriented,so it is selected as the research object.Based on the dynamic input-output method,a multi-objective optimization model is constructed,and the LMDI decomposition model is used to clarify the emission reduction tasks of industrial structure adjustment.The results of scenario studies and comparative analyses with different environmental element targets as constraints reveal that:a regulation strategy with a single NOx total amount as the environmental target will lead to an 11.68％increase in total COD emissions,with changes in the agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery products,and services sector being the main reason.A regulation strategy with the COD total amount as the environmental target will cause a 2.49％increase in total NOx emissions,among which the transportation,storage,and postal sector is the most important source of contribution.It is worth noting that both of the above strategies can achieve the CO2 intensity control target.However,if the CO2 intensity is taken as the target,it will result in NOx and COD emissions increasing by 11.75％and 7.85％,respectively.The research findings can provide refined decision-making support for the coordinated governance of"multi-sector-multi-pollutant"systems.