基于能源结构层面碳减排的绿色金融策略评价及耦合分析OA

Against the backdrop of new requirements for energy structure transformation proposed in the 15th Five-Year Plan,this study aims to identify the regional applicability ranking of green finance strategies that promote energy structure transformation and carbon emission reduction,and to reveal the evolutionary paths and coupling coordination characteristics of these strategies,thereby providing a basis for the region-specific allocation of green financial resources. An evaluation system comprising four dimensions(support for energy transition,support for carbon emission reduction,policy and financial environment,and social welfare effects)and 19 indicators was constructed.Taking six major regions of China(North China,Northeast China,East China,Central-South China,Southwest China,and Northwest China,covering 30 provinces and equivalents)as the sample,a combined weighting method integrating the entropy method,analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and TOPSIS was employed to calculate the performance scores and regional rankings of five green finance strategies—green credit,green bonds,green funds and PPPs,carbon finance,and green insurance—for the period 2016-2022.The coupling coordination degree model was then used to analyze the level of coupling coordination among the five strategies. From 2016 to 2022,the overall performance of green finance strategies showed an upward trend across all regions,with the"support for energy transition"dimension exhibiting the fastest growth.Significant regional differences were observed in strategy rankings.In North China,green credit consistently ranked first.In Northeast China,green credit ranked first from 2016 to 2020,but was overtaken by green bonds in 2022.In East China,the top-ranked strategy changed from green credit(2016)to green bonds(2018——2020)and then to green funds and PPPs(2022).In Central-South and Southwest China,green credit and green bonds remained the top two throughout the period.In Northwest China,green credit was always first,while the second position shifted from green funds and PPPs(2016)to green bonds(2018-2022).In terms of evolutionary paths,green credit showed a declining trend in most regions,whereas green insurance exhibited a fluctuating or continuously rising trend in all six regions.Regarding coupling coordination,Central-South,Southwest,and East China achieved the highest levels(reaching primary coordination in 2022,with coordination degree approximately 0.6-0.7),while Northwest China had the lowest level(barely coordination,approximately 0.5).Nationwide,the overall coordination level gradually improved from(near disorder)to barely coordination or primary coordination between 2016 and 2022. The role of green finance in promoting energy structure transformation and carbon emission reduction has been steadily strengthening,but the optimal portfolio of strategies varies dynamically across regions.Economically developed regions exhibit more frequent strategy changes and higher coupling coordination,whereas the western region lags due to its less developed financial system.It is recommended that region-specific and differentiated green finance strategies be adopted,with attention to the declining relative importance of green credit and the rapid rise of emerging strategies such as green insurance.A limitation of this study is that the data only go up to 2022;future research can verify the persistence of the observed evolutionary trends once more recent data become available.