城市埋地供气管网系统抗震功能可靠性分析OA
Reliability analysis of the seismic performance of urban gas supply pipeline networks
供气系统一般不允许带泄漏运行,对震后发生泄漏规模大的管网应立即停止供气,并及时排查修复,但当地震等级偏低,或发生管线破坏程度较轻时,考虑到城市居民用气需求,并不会全面停止供气.因此,在这种状况下供气管网并非无泄漏工作状态,而是处于轻微带泄漏工作状态.为评估带泄漏供气管网系统抗震功能可靠性,将管道震后不同破坏状态与埋地燃气管道泄漏模型结合起来,建立了考虑燃气管道泄漏的供气管网震后水力分析模型.利用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)方法耦合管道的三态破坏概率随机生成震后管道破坏状态,基于"压力驱动型"的水力计算方法进行了供气管网在设定地震下的功能可靠性计算,提出了震后用户节点服务状态量化标准.基于此分析方法对某低压供气管网进行了1 000次Monte Carlo模拟,不同地震状况下管网的功能可靠性分析,结果表明,该供气管网在Ⅵ度、Ⅶ度地震下系统抗震功能可靠性较高,在Ⅷ度地震下系统抗震功能可靠性大幅度降低,研究成果可为供气管网抗震功能可靠性分析及修复提供科学依据.
Gas supply systems are generally not allowed to operate under leakage conditions;pipeline networks with extensive leakage after earthquakes must be shut down immediately for inspection and repair.However,under low seismic intensity or minor pipeline damage,complete shutdown is often impractical due to urban gas demand,and the system may operate under slight leakage conditions.To evaluate the reliability of gas supply networks under such conditions,this study integrates post-earthquake pipeline failure states with a leakage model for buried gas pipelines and establishes a hydraulic analysis model that accounts for leakage.A three-state failure probability model is coupled with Monte Carlo method to randomly generate post-earthquake pipeline failure states.The functional reliability of the gas supply network under specified seismic conditions is then evaluated using a"pressure-driven"hydraulic analysis method,and the service status of user nodes after the earthquake is quantified.Based on this framework,the functional reliability of a low-pressure gas supply network under different seismic intensities is analyzed through 1 000 Monte Carlo simulations.The case study results show that the system maintains high seismic reliability under Ⅵ and Ⅶ earthquakes,while reliability decreases significantly under Ⅷ earthquakes.These findings provide a scientific basis for prost-earthquake reliability assessment and repair planning of urban gas supply pipeline networks.
徐刚;佘阳阳;郑山锁;程思渊;史继宁;刘俊杰
中国能源建设集团 陕西省电力设计院有限公司,西安 710054||西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院,西安 710055中国能源建设集团 陕西省电力设计院有限公司,西安 710054||西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院,西安 710055西安建筑科技大学 结构工程与抗震教育部重点实验室,西安 710055中国能源建设集团 陕西省电力设计院有限公司,西安 710054||西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院,西安 710055中国能源建设集团 陕西省电力设计院有限公司,西安 710054||西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院,西安 710055西安建筑科技大学 结构工程与抗震教育部重点实验室,西安 710055
建筑与水利
功能可靠性泄漏水力分析Monte Carlo
gas supplyserviceabilityleakagehydraulic analysisMonte Carlo method
《重庆大学学报》 2026 (5)
107-117,11
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFC1509302)国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278530)陕西省重点研发计划资助项目(2021ZDLSF06-10).Supported by National Key Research and Development Program Project(2019YFC1509302),National Natural Science Foundation of China(52278530),and Shaanxi Province Key Research and Development Program Project(2021ZDLSF06-10).
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