区域内人口变动对高等职业教育的发展影响及对策研究OA
Influence of Regional Population Changing on the Development of Higher Vocational Education and Its Countermeasures
人口是教育发展的基础变量,人口变动直接影响教育的规模、质量和结构.2022年陕西省人口自然增长率为-0.28‰,人口总量出现负增长,如何充分发挥人才红利,推动社会经济的持续健康发展,成为亟待解决的问题.陕西省作为西部地区的教育重阵,其高等职业教育的发展直接影响西部人才队伍建设.专业人口预测软件PADIS-INT能够整合多元数据、实现差异化分析.通过PADIS-INT软件对陕西省2025-2035年人口变动情况进行预测分析,结果显示:陕西省高等教育适龄人口总量近年有小幅增长,并在2033年迎来小高峰,预计达到246.68万人;随后逐渐下降,2035年降至237.93万人.鉴于小高峰期内陕西省高等职业教育在生均资源供给、师资供给等方面存在缺口,需要加大优质资源供给;后下降期生源减少,高等职业教育资源供给总量饱和,供给结构需要适时做出调整,由资源供给转向专项规划管理.基于不同变化时期人口特点,需要完善政策支持和专项财政投入、持续深化校企合作共建双师队伍、立足区域特色化解生源危机、面向社会需求助力终身教育,为区域内高等职业教育的供给规划提出对策建议,为其他阶段教育规划预测提供借鉴.
Population is the basic variable of education development.Population change directly affects the scale,quality and structure of education.In 2022,the natural population growth rate of Shaanxi Province was-0.28 ‰,and the total population showed negative growth.How to give full play to the talent dividend and promote the sustainable and healthy development of social economy has become an urgent problem to be solved.Shaanxi Province is an important education base in the western region,and the development of its higher vocational education directly affects the construction of the western talent team.Through PADIS-INT software,the population change of Shaanxi Province from 2025 to 2035 is predicted and analyzed.The prediction results show that the total population of higher education age in Shaanxi Province has increased slightly in recent years,and it will reach a small peak in 2033,which is expected to reach 2.4668 million people.Then it declined gradually to 2.3793 million in 2035.In view of the gap in the supply of resources per student and the supply of teachers in higher vocational education in Shaanxi Province during the small peak period,it is necessary to increase the supply of high quality;during the decline period,the total supply of higher vocational education resources is saturated,and the supply structure needs to be adjusted in time,from resource supply to special planning management.Based on the demographic characteristics in different periods of change,it is necessary to improve policy support and allocate dedicated financial investments,continuously deepen school-enterprise cooperation to jointly build a team of"double-qualified"teachers,leverage regional characteristics to resolve the crisis of student recruitment,and cater to social needs to facilitate lifelong education.This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the supply planning of higher vocational education within the region and provides references for educational planning and forecasting at other stages.
马鹏媛;陈紫涵
西安外国语大学教育学院(西安,710100)西安外国语大学教育学院(西安,710100)
社会科学
高等职业教育人口变动高质量发展应对机制陕西省
higher vocational educationpopulation changinghigh-quality developmentcoping mechanismsShaanxi province
《职业技术教育》 2026 (12)
56-65,10
国家社会科学基金"十三五"规划2020年度教育学一般课题"首批'本科层次高等职业教育试点大学'运行监测研究"(BJA200107),主持人:冯东
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