首页|期刊导航|智库理论与实践|中美科技战略竞争背景下我国卫星互联网产业链依赖结构与演变研究

中美科技战略竞争背景下我国卫星互联网产业链依赖结构与演变研究OACHSSCD

Dependency Structure and Evolution of China's Space-Based Internet Supply Chain under Sino-US Science and Technology Competition

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的/意义]在中美科技战略竞争加剧、轨道频谱资源争夺白热化的背景下,卫星互联网已上升成为国家战略基础设施.厘清中国卫星互联网产业链对外依赖的时空演化对保障供应链安全与制定突围策略具有重要且紧迫的现实意义.[方法/过程]本文采用美国卫星工业协会(Satellite Industry Association,SIA)对产业价值链的划分,遴选 79 个 HS-6 位核心产品,基于 2014-2023 年联合国商品贸易数据,构建中国与14个世界主要经济体的贸易依赖关系,并通过建立贸易依赖风险指数,追踪中国对Top 5贸易对象的进出口依赖结构演变.[结果/结论]研究表明:①我国卫星互联网产业链在应对外部环境冲击时表现出韧性不足,存在突发性出口下滑与进口上升拐点;②上游仍对欧美等发达国家和地区有技术进口需求,而中下游则在《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,RCEP)与"中国+1"布局驱动下快速"亚洲化",越南、菲律宾取代美国、德国成为最大进口来源.为此,建议强化产业顶层设计与资源统筹,加强上游制造的战略自主性,同时推动中下游进口多元化,打造风险可控的产业链,以提升卫星互联网产业链韧性与战略安全.

[Purpose/Significance]Amid intensifying Sino-US technological competition and the growing rivalry for orbital spectrum resources,space-based internet has become a critical component of national strategic infrastructure.Mapping the spatiotemporal evolution of China's industrial chain dependencies is essential for securing supply chains and developing targeted technological breakthroughs.[Method/Process]Following the Satellite Industry Association's value chain classification,this study identifies 79 core HS-6 products.Using UN Comtrade data from 2014 to 2023,it maps China's trade dependencies with 14 major economies and establishes a trade dependency risk index to track the evolution of import-export structures with its top five trading partners.[Result/Conclusion]The findings reveal that:① China's space-based internet supply chain exhibits insufficient resilience to external shocks,with distinct turning points marked by sudden export declines and import surges.②While the upstream segment remains constrained by technologically advanced Western nations,the midstream and downstream segments are rapidly"Asianizing"under the influence of the RCEP and"China+1"strategies—with Vietnam and the Philippines replacing the U.S.and Germany as primary import sources.Consequently,China must strengthen top-level strategic design and resource coordination to enhance upstream autonomy and diversify mid-to-downstream imports,ensuring a more resilient and secure supply chain.

范唯唯;李学渊;徐彬彬;郭剑锋

中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190||中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190||中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190||中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190||中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049

管理科学

卫星互联网中美贸易摩擦产业链依赖度产业链迁移

space-based internetSino-US science and technology competitionsupply chain interdepen-dencyindustrial transfer

《智库理论与实践》 2026 (2)

83-93,11

本文系中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院基础能力增强计划"科技战略情报研究"(项目编号:E5X0831Z)研究成果之一.

10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.20250808.0006

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