冰湖动态变化与泄流洪水遥感监测OA

In the context of global climate warming,accelerated glacier melting and retreat have increased both the number and size of glacial lakes,significantly heightening the risk of glacial lake flood discharge,a highly destructive natural hazard.As the country with the most extensive glacier distribution in the world's mid-to low-latitude regions,China's glacial lakes are mainly located in remote,rugged areas such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains,which pose great challenges for traditional ground-based monitoring.In particular,glacial lakes located in transboundary regions involve greater complexity and carry significant international implications.This study focused on the Merzbacher Lake,which is situated in Kyrgyzstan but has a direct impact on the Xinjiang region of China.By integrating multi-source remote sensing data,including optical,synthetic aperture radar(SAR),altimetry,and surveying satellite data,the study systematically monitored the dynamic changes of the lake from 2016 to 2025 and accurately revealed its annual"filling-discharge"cyclical pattern,determining the timing of lake discharge events over the years.Using data from the new-generation altimetry satellite SWOT,the study quantified the rate of water level rise during the flood season(0.7～0.9 m per day).Furthermore,high-precision topographic data derived from the GaoFen-7 surveying satellite was used to establish the lake basin's water level-area-storage capacity relationship curve,based on which the discharge volumes of the Merzbacher Lake from 2016 to 2025 were estimated to range between 40 million and 99 million m3.A preliminary risk water level threshold was also identified.The results demonstrate that multi-source remote sensing collaborative technology enables high-precision dynamic monitoring and quantitative risk assessment of periodic glacial lake discharges,providing a critical scientific basis and technical support for disaster risk prevention and emergency response decision-making in downstream regions.