首页|期刊导航|中国防汛抗旱|基于Wasserstein生成对抗网络过采样的城市洪涝风险智能预测模型

基于Wasserstein生成对抗网络过采样的城市洪涝风险智能预测模型OA

Intelligent prediction model of urban flood risk based on Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network oversampling

中文摘要英文摘要

城市洪涝是影响社会公共安全的重要问题,风险预测是洪涝灾害防控的重要手段.针对城市洪涝风险智能预测中积水深数据不平衡问题,提出基于Wasserstein生成对抗网络(Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network,W-GAN)的少数类样本过采样方法,生成高、中、低风险样本均衡的深度学习数据集,结合卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Networks,CNN)建立城市洪涝风险智能预测模型.以海口市海甸岛为研究区,结果表明研究区极低风险样本量约为极高风险的10倍,数据不平衡特征显著.W-GAN算法生成的样本与原始样本特征高度相似;相较于原始不平衡数据集,经数据优化后的平衡数据集有效提升了各风险等级的预测精度,其中极高风险等级的预测性能提升最为显著,其F1值由0.712 0提升至0.944 0.研究可为城市洪涝风险的精准识别与科学防控提供理论支撑和技术参考.

Urban flooding is a critical issue affecting social public safety,and risk prediction serves as an important measure for flood disaster prevention and control.Aiming at the imbalance of inundation depth data in intelligent prediction of urban flood risk,this paper proposes a minority class oversampling method based on Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network(W-GAN)to generate a balanced deep learning dataset with high,medium,and low-risk samples.Combined with Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),an intelligent prediction model for urban flood risk is established.Taking Haidian Island in Haikou City as the study area,the results show that the number of extremely very low risk samples in the study area is approximately 10 times that of very high risk samples,presenting a significant data imbalance characteristic.The samples generated by the W-GAN algorithm are highly similar to the original samples in features.Compared with the original imbalanced dataset,the optimized balanced dataset effectively improves the prediction accuracy of every risk level,among which the prediction performance of the very high risk level is the most significantly enhanced,with its F1-score increased from 0.712 0 to 0.944 0.This study can provide theoretical support and technical reference for the accurate identification and scientific prevention and control of urban flood risk.

徐山仑;许红师;王慧亮;杨晨

郑州大学水利与交通学院,郑州 450001郑州大学水利与交通学院,郑州 450001郑州大学水利与交通学院,郑州 450001华北水利水电大学数字孪生水利高等研究院,郑州 450046

信息技术与安全科学

城市洪涝风险预测不平衡数据Wasserstein生成对抗网络CNN

urban floodingrisk predictionimbalanced dataWasserstein Generative Adversarial NetworkCNN

《中国防汛抗旱》 2026 (5)

15-21,30,8

国家自然科学基金(52579025)河南省自然科学基金杰出青年基金(242300421041).

10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2026186

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