基于降雨诱发的地质灾害链动态演进与风险传递机制研究OA

In response to cascading effects and risk transmission mechanism of rainfall induced geological hazards,taking Yujiagou in Mufu town in Enshi city in Hubei province as a typical research area,based on data collection,analysis and ground investigation,9 landslide bodies have been identified as the initial sources of hazard chain.By using the limit equilibrium method and FLAC-3 D model,the stability coeffi-cient(Fs)of landslides under different rainfall intensities has been quantified.Transmission mechanism of landslide instability triggering debris flows has been revealled.By using RAMMS software,the trajectory and accumulation characteristics of debris flows have been simulated.Combining with analysis of valley terrain and material flux,a risk transfer model for three level chain of landslide debris flow barrier lake disasters has been constructed.Through practice of geological hazard chain risk analysis,the disaster process of geological hazard chain has been basically simulated.It can provide scientific basis for early warning and risk management of geological hazard chain in southwestern mountainous areas.