陆权困境能否循环?OACHSSCD

Since modern times,the rivalry between land powers and sea powers has often resulted in the recurring dilemma of land powers suffering repeated defeats.Why does this pattern emerge?By analyzing classic cases such as the Anglo-French,Anglo-Russian,and Anglo-German rivalries since the 19th century,this paper proposes an explanatory framework of"security conditions,enduring rivalry,strategic consensus."Research reveals that land powers and sea powers,driven by inherent differences in their security conditions,become entangled in enduring rivalry.This high-pressure environment catalyzes crucial land powers—as third parties—to form explicit counterbalancing consensus and forge alliances with sea powers,ultimately trapping the land power in dual containment from both land and sea,leading to its demise.In the era of technopolitics,this theoretical framework undergoes profound adaptation:technological transformation,as a reconfiguring variable,deeply couples with traditional geographic factors.This drives competition to shift from geographic-space dominance to techno-geographic dominance,and from high-intensity intermittent rivalry to normalized extreme attrition.It also renders external response patterns highly complex and uncertain.By analyzing the evolution of security conditions and strategic consensus in great power competition in the technopolitical era,this paper argues that the classic causal chain that led to the repeated defeats of land powers in modern times has been broken.Therefore,although great power competition in the technopolitical era persists with modern characteristics,the possibility of transcending the land power dilemma has emerged,giving rise to long-term strategic games centered on technology and systems.