水旱灾害防御范式重构与关键问题OA

Extreme precipitation,severe flooding,widespread droughts,and compound disasters occur more frequently as the"non-stationary"features of the global water cycle become more obvious.When confronted with"low-probability,high-impact"natural disasters,the traditional approach of"defense based on historical patterns,"which assumes climate stationarity,suffers from a lack of adaptation.By investigating the conceptual chain of"flood-drought-disaster-impact-prevention-resilience,"this study points out a systemic bias in the present approach.This bias emphasizes structural prevention over adaptive resilience and disaster control over damage mitigation.We establish a new paradigm of"intelligent adaptation to uncertain extreme"in response,along with its practical applications.According to the study,a modernized flood and drought defense system should:apply the National Water Network as a strategic carrier to improve spatiotemporal water reallocation capacity;use smart water management as the main driver for establishing a closed-loop system that combines"perception-forecasting-simulation-decision making";with ecological measures as a resilience foundation to promote"grey-green synergy"in systemic governance.Additionally,the perspectives of energy dynamics and social psychology expand the theoretical bounds of disaster comprehension and defense evaluation.The aim of this study is to offer a theoretical foundation and workable solutions to establish a new-generation flood and drought mitigation system that will withstand unpredictable conditions in the future.