首页|期刊导航|热带农业科学|基于AHP-CRITIC赋权法的广西冬种马铃薯低温寒冻害风险评估与区划

基于AHP-CRITIC赋权法的广西冬种马铃薯低温寒冻害风险评估与区划OA

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Low-Temperature Freezing Damage to Winter Potatoes in Guangxi Based on the AHP-CRITIC Weighting Method

中文摘要英文摘要

低温寒冻害是影响广西冬种马铃薯的主要气象灾害之一.开展广西冬种马铃薯低温寒冻害风险评估与区划,对广西马铃薯种植趋利避害、防灾减灾、优化布局具有重要意义.基于自然灾害风险分析原理,融合逐日逐站气象资料、马铃薯生产资料、社会经济统计资料和地理信息数据等多源数据,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、承灾体暴露性,以及防灾减灾能力 4 个方面建立广西冬种马铃薯低温寒冻害风险评估体系,基于 AHP-CRITIC 赋权法,结合线性加权综合评价法、GIS 空间分析技术,研制广西冬种马铃薯低温寒冻害精细化风险区划专题图.结果表明,广西冬种马铃薯低温灾害高风险区主要包括桂林、贺州二市大部,柳州、河池二市北部,百色市高寒山区以及金秀、蒙山、岑溪等县(区),低风险区主要分布在沿海地区,右江河谷、左江河谷附近区域,南宁、贵港、玉林三市部分区域.评价和区划结果具有较强针对性,可为广西冬种马铃薯生产趋利避害、优化布局、防灾减灾提供决策参考.

Low-temperature freezing damage is one of the major meteorological disasters affecting winter-planted potatoes in Guangxi.Conducting risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage to winter-planted potatoes in Guangxi is of great significance for facilitating winter potato production to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages,preventing and mitigating disasters,and optimizing planting layout.Based on the principles of natural disaster risk analysis,this study inte-grated multisource data,including daily station-by-station meteorological data and potato production data,socioeconomic statistical data,and geographic information data.A risk assessment system for low-temperature freezing damage to win-ter-planted potatoes in Guangxi was established from four aspects:hazard of disaster-inducing factors,vulnerability of disas-ter-bearing bodies,exposure of disaster-bearing bodies,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.Using the AHP-CRITIC weighting method,combined with the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation method and GIS spatial analy-sis technology,a refined risk zoning thematic map of low-temperature freezing damage to winter-planted potatoes in Guangxi was compiled.The results show that the high-risk areas for low-temperature disasters of winter-planted potatoes in Guangxi mainly include most areas of Guilin and Hezhou cities,the northern parts of Liuzhou and Hechi cities,as well as alpine mountainous areas of Baise city,and counties(districts)such as Jinxiu,Mengshan,and Cenxi.The low-risk areas are mainly distributed in coastal regions,areas near the Youjiang River Valley and Zuojiang River Valley,and parts of Nanning,Guigang,and Yulin cities.The evaluation and zoning results have strong pertinence,providing decision-making references for winter potato production in Guangxi to seek advantages,avoid disadvantages,optimize layout,and prevent and mitigate disasters.

谭孟祥;李玉聪;何燕;谢映

广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所 广西 南宁 530022广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所 广西 南宁 530022广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所 广西 南宁 530022广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所 广西 南宁 530022

农业科技

冬种马铃薯低温灾害风险评估精细化区划

winter-planted potatoeslow-temperature disasterrisk assessmentrefined zoning

《热带农业科学》 2026 (3)

7-16,10

广西农业科技自筹经费项目"冬种马铃薯低温灾害风险评估及防灾减灾对策"(No.Z202081).

10.12008/j.issn.1009-2196.2026.03.002

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