长江保护法的政策扩散路径与影响因素研究OA

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is a pivotal region for high-quality economic and social development and a strate-gic area for ecological civilization construction in China,so the policy implementation efficiency within the territory has a signifi-cant meaning to the sustainable development of the whole region.To address the insufficient research on the policy diffusion mech-anisms in this area,we investigate the Yangtze River Protection Law through a policy diffusion lens,developing an integrated ana-lytical framework that couples the Bass diffusion model with rough set theory to unravel spatiotemporal diffusion patterns and driv-ing factors.Key findings include:① The policy diffusion exhibits a gradual sigmoidal curve,proceeding through three distinct pha-ses,preliminary argumentation period(2019～2020),rapid implementation period(2020～2022),and deepening period(from 2022 to the present),with internal imitation effects predominantly driving the adoption dynamics;② Spatially,a hierarchical diffu-sion pattern emerges,characterized by early adoption in core cities followed by adjacent regions;③ Rough set analysis identifies industrial structure and technological capacity as the most critical drivers.By innovatively merging policy diffusion theory with rough set methods,we elucidate the multidimensional transmission mechanisms of basin-scale legal policies and propose a dual-engine strategy that prioritizes industrial and technological synergies.These insights establish an empirical foundation for a coor-dinated governance framework integrating legal constraints,industrial upgrading,and technological innovation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,facilitating the transformation of ecological civilization construction from institutional design to practical effective-ness.