基于综合风险度模型的淮河流域洪水风险区划研究与实践OA
Study and practice of flood risk zoning in the Huaihe River Basin based on a comprehensive risk index model
为解决淮河流域洪水风险空间分布不清、防治措施缺乏精准依据的问题,本研究构建了一套系统的洪水风险区划方法.首先进行"三区划分"并细化区划单元;进而构建以最大淹没水深为核心,以最大行进流速和最大淹没历时为修正因子的综合风险度(R)模型;最后,根据 R 值将流域洪水风险划分为低、中、高、极高 4 个等级,并据此制定洪水灾害防治区划.淮河流域以中、低风险区为主,合计占比达95.19%;高与极高风险区总面积占比 4.81%,空间上主要分布于蒙洼、城西湖等蓄滞洪区,淮河干流沿线以及里下河腹地洼地;一、二级重点防治区总面积达 51286.76 km2,占流域面积的15.50%.本研究提出的基于综合风险度模型的区划方法能够精确揭示淮河流域洪水风险的空间分布规律,相应提出的"分级防治、重点突出"的治理策略与防洪标准可为流域水旱灾害风险管理、国土空间规划及防洪工程体系建设提供科学的理论依据与决策支持.
To address the issue of unclear spatial distribution of flood risks and lack of precise basis for prevention and control measures in the Huaihe River Basin,this paper aims to establish a systematic flood risk zoning method to identify different levels of risk areas within the basin and provide decision support for precise flood control and disaster reduction.Taking the entire Huaihe River Basin as the research object,First,the"three-zone division"was carried out and the zoning units were refined.Next,a comprehensive risk index(R)model was developed with the maximum inundation depth as the core indicator,and the maximum flow velocity and maximum inundation duration as modifying factors.Finally,based on the R values,flood risk in the basin was classified into four levels—low,moderate,high,and very high—and a corresponding zoning scheme for flood disaster prevention and mitigation was formulated.The results of flood risk zoning showed that the Huaihe River Basin was mainly composed of medium and low-risk areas,accounting for a total of 95.19%.The total area of high and extremely high-risk areas accounted for 4.81%,mainly distributed in flood storage and detention areas such as Mengwa and Chengxi Lake,along the main stream of the Huaihe River,and in the low-lying areas of the Lixia River.The results of flood disaster prevention and control zoning showed that the total area of the first and second level key prevention and control areas reaches 51286.76 km2,accounting for 15.50%of the watershed area.The zoning method based on the comprehensive risk level model proposed in this paper can accurately reveal the spatial distribution pattern of flood risk in the Huaihe River Basin.The governance strategy of"graded prevention and control,with emphasis on key areas"and the goal of improving flood control standards proposed based on this provide a scientific theoretical basis and decision support for risk management of water and drought disasters in river basins,national spatial planning,and the construction of flood control engineering systems.
洪云飞;乌景秀;陈月华;刘国庆
水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029||河海大学,江苏 南京 210098水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029淮河水利委员会,安徽 蚌埠,233001水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029
天文与地球科学
洪水灾害风险区划风险要素综合风险度模型淮河流域
flood disasterrisk zoningrisk factorcomprehensive risk index modelHuaihe River Basin
《江淮水利科技》 2026 (2)
14-18,37,6
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