首页|期刊导航|城市规划学刊|国土空间规划体系下的城市人口规模:老问题、新体系、再认知

国土空间规划体系下的城市人口规模:老问题、新体系、再认知OACHSSCD

Urban Population Size in the Territorial Spatial Planning System:Enduring Challenges,New Frameworks,and Reconceptualization

中文摘要英文摘要

在国土空间总体规划编制时期,多数城市的规划预测人口值仍然"虚高";市级总体规划的人口规模加合总数超过省级规划的人口规模,人口规模的传导处于"虚增"状态;人均建设用地等指标与人口数不能建立对应关系,被认为该数值为"虚设".本文分析这些现象的成因是新体系的旧思维造成的:对于人口规模概念内涵认知的偏差,将人口规模等同于统计人口;对于国土空间规划系统性问题认知不清,在规划体系中单纯强调上下一致;静态规划对于动态变化的适应性不足,忽视动态的"流".在此基础上提出:"人口规模"设定应适应于新的体系:区分不同层级"人口规模"的政策内涵;摒弃"精确对应"的思维;通过精细化管理优化人地关系.同时希望这类思考能够为优化各级各类规划编制、完善"一张图"系统的数据逻辑以及提高规划的精细化治理能力提供参考.

During the compilation period of territorial spatial master plans,the pro-jected population figures in most urban plans remain inflated.The aggregate popula-tion sizes from municipal-level master plans consistently exceed those outlined in provincial-level plans,resulting in a systematic upward distortion in population size transmission.Meanwhile,indicators such as per capita construction land use fail to match actual population figures,rendering these values nominal.This paper argues that these phenomena reflect outdated thinking within the new system:a misconcep-tion of population size,equating it with statistical population;insufficient recognition of the systemic nature of territorial spatial planning,leading to an overemphasis on consistency across planning levels;and inadequate adaptability of static planning to dynamic population flows.On this basis,the paper proposes that the treatment of"population size"should fit the new system:by distinguishing the policy implica-tions of"population size"across planning levels;abandoning the pursuit of precise numerical correspondence;and optimizing human-land relationships through more re-fined management approaches.It is hoped that these reflections will offer useful ref-erences for improving plan compilation at various levels,improving the data logic of the"one-map"system,and enhancing the refined governance capacity of planning.

王新哲;薛皓颖;刘振宇

上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司||自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司空间规划研究院||自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室

建筑与水利

人口规模规划体系国土空间"形"与"流"政策选择

population sizeplanning systemterritorial spatial"form"and"flow"policy choices

《城市规划学刊》 2026 (1)

29-35,7

国家自然科学基金面上项目:要素流动视角下长三角地区"增长-收缩"空间格局的形成机制与规划响应(项目编号:52578094)资助

10.16361/j.upf.202601004

评论