手部创伤弧菌感染不良预后的危险因素分析及早期风险预测OA

Objective:To analyze the risk factors affecting the poor prognosis of hand Vibrio vulnificus infection and to construct a relevant prediction model,so as to provide more guidance for timely and effective treatment in the future.Methods:The data of 80 patients with hand Vibrio vulnificus infection were retrospectively analyzed.According to the prognosis,they were divided into good prognosis group(n=48)and poor prognosis group(n=32).The independent risk factors of prognosis were screened by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Based on the above factors,a regression prediction model was constructed and the clinical predictive efficacy was analyzed.Results:The proportion of patients with underlying diseases(liver function injury,diabetes),the time from injury to the first application of antibiotics,and the time from treatment to operation in the good prognosis group were lower than those in the poor prognosis group(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that combined underlying diseases(liver function injury,diabetes),the time from injury to the first use of antibiotics,and the time from treatment to surgery were risk factors for poor prognosis of hand V.vulnificus infection(P＜0.05).The AUC of the nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis of hand V.vulnificus infection was 0.782(95％CI:0.675～0.8,P＜0.05),with a sensitivity of 0.750 and a specificity of 0.812.Conclusion:Patients with Vibrio vulnificus infection were affected by underlying diseases(liver function injury,diabetes),the time from injury to the first application of antibiotics,and the time from treatment to surgery.The nomogram and ROC curve were drawn,which had high predictive efficiency and accuracy,and had a guiding role in early identification of high-risk patient groups.